Everything you need to know about his speech… so you don’t have to watch it
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on Capitol Hill January 30, 2018.Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images.
Five days into Donald Trump’s second term, Speaker Mike Johnson officially invited Trump to address a joint session of Congress, a speech that is set for 9pm ET tonight.
Back then, on January 25, Trump was riding high. He had just entered the White House with the highest approval ratings of his political career; he had just successfully rammed Pete Hegseth’s confirmation as Defense Secretary through the Senate; and he had caught Democrats flat-footed with an onslaught of executive orders that week.
But as he prepares for his speech in front of Congress tonight, things aren’t quite as rosy in MAGA land.
Over the past 43 days, as Trump unleashed Elon Musk on the federal government, as the Republican House passed a draconian budget resolution, and as Trump roiled our allies and emboldened our enemies, everyday Americans have shown up en masse at town halls around the country and made life miserable for their GOP reps.
At the same time, Trump’s approval rating is now in negative territory in multiple polls, with a recent Reuters Ipsos survey showing Trump with 44% approval and 51% disapproval, a stark contrast with his net positive 47% approval and 41% disapproval rating right after taking office. Another warning sign for Trump is his approval on the economy, which has slipped to 39%, a mere 5% higher than where Joe Biden was when he left office.
Reuters/Ipsos also found Trump’s tariffs to be quite unpopular, with just 41% approving and 54% disapproving. Despite this, Trump confirmed Monday that his 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would go into effect this morning, sending the U.S. stock market tumbling 650 points, its biggest single-day drop of his new presidency.
As Trump takes the rostrum in the U.S. House chamber tonight, he will be addressing an increasingly angry electorate at home and an increasingly emboldened Democratic minority in the chamber, realities that few expect Trump will acknowledge tonight.
So what will he say during his address?
In today’s piece, I will preview what to expect from Trump’s speech so you don’t have to watch it. I’ll also take a look at the oppositional messaging we’re already seeing from Democrats to counter what we all expect to be an hour of lies, self-congratulation, and Biden bashing.
The Gaslighter In Chief
According to Fox News, the theme for tonight’s address is “Renewal of the American Dream,” and the speech will be broken into four parts:
Trump’s accomplishments so far in his second presidency, the economy, funding for border security and Trump’s plans for global peace.
But considering Trump’s speech comes just as his tariff policies send the markets crashing, as the price of eggs skyrockets, and as Trump and Musk revel in mass federal worker layoffs, a more accurate theme would be “gaslighting the American people.”
As Trump’s chief propagandist Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News on Monday in a signal of the gaslighting yet to come tonight:
“President Trump has accomplished more in one month than any president in four years, and the renewal of the American Dream is well underway. In his joint address to Congress, President Trump will celebrate his extraordinarily successful first month in office while outlining his bold, ambitious and commonsense vision for the future.”
In a separate appearance on Fox Business, Leavitt turned the gaslighting up to eleven with an assist from host Larry Kudlow, who declared with a straight face, amid a tanking stock market:
“What’s left of the Biden economy is slumping so badly. This is the legacy of the Biden economy!”
He then turned to Leavitt and asked her to promise the speech would be “growthier,” including “lots of talk about tax cuts and deregulation and energy production and economic growth.”
Leavitt responded:
“I can confirm the President is going to talk about his economic agenda. And truly, this administration is working around the clock to bring down the cost of living for the American people, to deregulate the regulations that Joe Biden put on every industry across the board. And you know tax cuts are a huge priority for this president and he’ll be talking directly to Congress about that.”
Kudlow, as a former Trump administration official himself, was happy to set up the administration’s entire framing of the economy as “Biden’s fault,” which is expected to be a major theme of tonight.
As Time Magazine makes clear in the headline of their preview of the address:
Trump’s Strategy For His Speech to Congress: Craft Viral Moments, Blame Biden
Or as one White House official diplomatically put it:
“He’s going to speak directly to the American people about the challenges he inherited from the previous administration,” the official says. Then, in typical Trump fashion, he will pitch himself as the solitary figure who can rescue the nation from decline. “He’s going to showcase why he is the man for this moment.”
How better to try to distract from the awkward reality that the country is undergoing a period of major buyer’s remorse right now?
As CNN’s Harry Enten bluntly put it on X:
The Democratic National Committee helpfully compiled a set of talking points that reinforce the fact that while Trump would like to make tonight about “renewal,” the better word for his presidency right now is “decline”:
- Trump is taking the stage for his joint address with the second lowest approval rating of any president in modern American history — beaten only by himself during his first term.
- Americans aren’t buying what Trump is selling: 53% of Americans think the economy is on the wrong track, 64% say their cost of living is heading in the wrong direction, and 2 out of 3 Americans believe the economy is rigged for the rich and powerful.
- The question is simple: whose side are you on? If it weren’t obvious enough that Trump is in this for himself and the billionaires he surrounds himself with, Elon Musk will be in the chamber as Trump gives his address — cheering on the very policies that are putting ultra-wealthy Americans like him over working people.
But sure, Donald, gaslight away.
The Tell-Tale Guests Of Honor
One way to identify Trump’s likely speech narratives is to scan the special guest list. Those are the people the Trump administration and Republican officials have invited to attend.
One of Trump’s guests in the chamber tonight will be Elon Musk, signaling his intention, as The New York Times reports, “to boast about his assault on the federal bureaucracy” and “speak about the speed with which he has pushed through cuts to government through the Department of Government Efficiency, known as DOGE.” Music to Democrats’ ears.
And despite what Leavitt would have us believe, it’s clear from other guests expected to be present tonight that a good chunk of the speech will be devoted to distraction. Specifically, Trump will draw attention away from the economy to other more anger-inducing issues.
Sensing a theme here?
Olivia Hayes, a young widow from Louisiana whose husband Wesley was killed by an undocumented immigrant in a drunk driving accident, will be a guest of Speaker Johnson.
Allyson and Lauren Phillips, the mother and sister of Laken Riley. Riley, 22, was murdered by an undocumented immigrant. Her name is on the first immigration bill Trump signed this year. They will be guests of the First Lady.
Or here…
Riley Gaines, a conservative activist and former swimmer who has advocated against allowing transgender women to compete in women’s sports, will be a guest of Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R, Iowa). Trump recently signed an executive order banning transgender women from participating in women’s sports.
First Lady Melania Trump announced she would bring January Littlejohn, a Florida mother and parents’ rights advocate who sued her school board after her child socially transitioned to a different gender identity.
By contrast, Democrats have invited guests who will highlight the economy, including the harmful effects of Trump’s economic policies on the lives of everyday Americans.
From fired federal workers…
Alissa Ellman, a disabled veteran who was recently fired from her position at the Buffalo Veterans Affairs Office, and Tiffany Ramos, who was fired from her position at the Department of Agriculture, will be attending as guests of Schumer.
Michael Missal, the former Inspector General for the Department of Veterans Affairs who was dismissed by Trump (along with 16 other inspectors general), will be attending as a guest of Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D, Conn.), the ranking member of the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee.
Jason King, a disabled veteran recently fired from the Federal Aviation Administration’s safety division, will be a guest of Sen. Tim Kaine (D, Va.).
To small business owners impacted by Trump’s tariffs…
Allison Hope, the executive director of the Vermont Maple Sugar Makers Association, will be a guest of Sen. Peter Welch (D, Vt.). Hope says that Vermont’s maple industry is bracing for the economic fallout of Trump’s 25% tariff on Canada, which goes into effect on Tuesday.
Rebecca Hamilton, a small business owner who runs a manufacturer of natural personal care products and can’t afford to budget for Trump’s tariffs, will be a guest of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D, N.H.).
To Medicaid recipients whose health care could be gutted by the Trump budget if the blueprint passed by the House becomes reality…
Jessica Martinez and Ana Medina Garcia, cancer survivors and recipients of Medicaid, and Emma Larson, who received a lifesaving treatment for her spinal muscular atrophy due to a reimbursement from the National Institutes of Health, were also invited by Schumer.
Cheri Byer, a Medicaid recipient who previously battled addiction and was able to access residential addiction treatment in part because she was eligible for Medicaid, will be a guest of Sen. Maggie Hassan (D, N.H.).
While these Democrats have decided to use their very attendance at the address tonight to highlight Trump’s failures, many Democrats have chosen to boycott the address altogether.
Whether out of principle:
The message they are sending is clear, per Politico:
“Democrats are on the side of the American people while Trump and Republicans in Congress stand with Elon Musk and billionaire donors.”
“Promises Made, Promises Broken”
We are likely to hear several references tonight to Trump’s favored slogan, “Promises Made, Promises Kept.”
Sure, it’s true that he promised to cut taxes for the wealthiest Americans and the House has passed a blueprint to do just that. And yes, he promised to decimate the “administrative state” by firing thousands of federal workers. Check. And he has followed through on other promises targeting transgender children and active servicemembers as well as immigrants legally living and working in the U.S. He has in fact taken these monumentally unpopular actions.
But Democrats have already begun to highlight ahead of tonight the many promises he has broken.
In a new online video, Senator Chuck Schumer ripped Trump for already breaking the major economic promise he made to voters last year, namely to lower costs on Day One.
Schumer’s point was echoed by the DNC in their excellent talking points memo:
- Donald Trump has broken his campaign promise to lower costs on Day One, and is instead wreaking havoc on the economy as a recession looms and costs are set to skyrocket — from grocery costs to gas prices, electronics, clothes, and more.
- Bottom line: No matter what we hear from Trump tonight, he has failed to deliver on his campaign promises and is doing nothing to lower costs for working families.
And Malcolm Kenyatta, Vice Chair of the DNC, reinforced this message even still, explaining how Trump has abandoned his economic promises and has “squandered the economy that he walked into.”
In other words, it’s not just that Trump has broken his promises, it’s that he’s making things worse for the American people.
As the DNC War Room makes clear in a “Promises Made, Promises Broken” memo released yesterday:
Trump Isn’t Just Failing to Deliver on His Promises — He’s Making Things Worse
PROMISE: “Making America affordable again”
BROKEN: Prices are climbing under Trump while economists predict “a serious Trump recession” and consumer confidence plummets
PROMISE: “Rapidly defeat” inflation on Day One
BROKEN: Barely a month into his presidency, Trump admitted “inflation is back”
PROMISE: No cuts to Medicaid or Social Security (even after he tried to gut them every year of his first term)
BROKEN: Republicans are pushing a budget (with Trump’s blessing) that would put Medicaid on the chopping block while DOGE threatens to slash the Social Security Administration
PROMISE: Lower mortgage rates to 3% and “maybe even lower than that” to make housing more affordable
BROKEN: DOGE cuts to the Department of Housing and Urban Development are likely to worsen housing markets and upend mortgages
PROMISE: Reduce energy prices by 50% and bring down the price of gas to under $2 a gallon
BROKEN: Gas prices are set to rise across the country under Trump
PROMISE: Promised to “protect our workers [and] … protect our jobs”
BROKEN: Trump and Musk’s reckless mass firings forced small businesses to lay off employees, losing thousands of private sector jobs
Expect some of these same themes during the Democratic rebuttal to Trump’s speech by freshman Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, widely considered a rising star in the party.
Per PBS News:
Slotkin is expected to focus on economic issues in her rebuttal amid Trump’s Monday announcement that 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada would begin Tuesday. The move has reignited fears of a North American trade war, which has already shown signs of driving up inflation and stalling growth.
Those close to Slotkin have suggested she plans to use the speech not just as a rebuttal to Trump, but as a chance to highlight Democrats’ broader platform.
While tonight will be Donald Trump’s first joint address to Congress of his new term, giving him the chance to frame his own Trump 2.0 agenda to the American people, it actually feels more like an opportunity for Democrats, a chance for them to reintroduce themselves to the nation as a newly energized, on-message opposition party…something we have been waiting for since November.
